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10.6.2024
721 Views..
32 Comments..
EURO SELL-OFF CONTINUES AS PERIPHERY BOND PREMIUM SPIKES HIGHER - 2024
The Euro continued to sell-off after Emmanuel Macron’s dissolved parliament and
called for a snap election after his party’s dismal showing in European
elections. The high stakes wager centers around the belief that voters will side
with President Macron’s party when it really matters, as the European elections
have a history of being a ‘protest vote’ to express dissatisfaction with the
status quo but ultimately voters have backed away from populist parties when
electing lawmakers.
However, the first round of elections takes place as soon as the 30th of June
with a wave of populist parties sweeping across Europe, most recently seen in
Italian politics and now, seemingly making a reappearance in France. The chart
below shows the rise in risk premium for French Government bonds (representative
of a higher perceived risk of holding French bonds) over safer German bonds of
the same duration.
11.7.2024
567 Views..
28 Comments..
US DOLLAR JUMPS AFTER NFPS THUMP EXPECTATIONS, GOLD HITS A ONE-MONTH LOW - 2024
The latest US Jobs Report showed 272k new roles
created in May, dwarfing
expectations of 185K and April’s 165k (revised lower from 175k). The
unemployment rate rose to 4.0%, from 3.9%, while monthly average earnings rose
to 0.4% from 0.2% last month.
The dollar index has been under pressure this week from the weak ADP and JOLTs
data but regained all of this week’s losses after the NFP numbers hit the
screens. The dollar index has broken back above the 200-dsma and the 38.2% Fib
retracement and is currently testing the multi-month trend support.
Gold is now posting a fresh one-month low and gold bulls have endured a
difficult day. Earlier today a Bloomberg report noted that China had stopped
buying gold, sending the precious metal down $20/oz. in quick order.
14.8.2024
511 Views..
41 Comments..
GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSIS AND CHARTS - 2024
US rate cut expectations are being pushed back further after Friday’s
forecast-beating NFPs showed the US labor market in robust health. The first 25
basis point cut is not fully priced-in until the December meeting, although the
November meeting is a live option. In total, 38 basis points of cuts are seen
this year, suggesting that it is currently a coin toss between one of two moves.
Friday’s US Jobs Report shocked the market and sent US Treasury yields spinning
higher and gold and silver sliding lower. Later this week we have May consumer
and producer inflation, while the latest FOMC meeting will see all policy
settings left untouched. The FOMC press conference may give some clues as to the
Fed’s current thinking, along with the latest Summary of Economic Projections
(dot plot).
Gold is looking to push higher today but the move lacks conviction. The recent
$170/oz. range ($2,280/oz. - $2,450/oz.) remains in place and resistance is
unlikely to be tested in the near term.
22.8.2024
412 Views..
31 Comments..
Markets Week Ahead: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY; Eurozone Inflation, US Core PCE - 2024
The new week will start off slowly, as both the US
and UK markets will be closed
on Monday— the former for Memorial Day and the latter for a bank holiday.
Holidays in these financial hubs mean lower trading volume, possibly leading to
sluggish price action. But there's a catch: thin liquidity can at times magnify
price movements if unexpected news hits the wires, with fewer traders around to
absorb buy and sell orders. That said, caution is warranted for those who still
decide to trade on Monday.
As we progress through the week, we anticipate a relatively calm period with few
high-impact events likely to spark significant volatility. Nonetheless, the
landscape could change on Friday with the release of critical economic
indicators. On one side of the Atlantic, Eurozone May CPI figures will be
released. On the other side of the pond, we’ll get core price consumption
expenditure data, the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched inflation gauge.
15.9.2024
650 Views..
42 Comments..
US Dollar Slips Further, Gold Nudges Higher, Bitcoin Poised for a New ATH - 2024
The yield on the US 2-year government is within a couple of basis points of
posting a new two-month low and is dragging the US dollar lower. The recent
double-high at 5.05% seems likely to be this cycle’s high, unless the Fed takes
an unexpected hawkish turn, and further losses are expected over the next few
weeks sheds of the Fed’s first rate cut. Six red candles in a row have pushed
two-year yields into oversold territory so a small retrace higher may occur
before the sell-off resumes.
The dollar index is also looking under pressure and now trades below the 200-day
simple moving average, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and recent trend
support. Friday’s US Jobs Report has the ability to send the greenback higher in
the short-term, but in the medium-term, the dollar index may drift down to the
50% Fib retracement at 103.44 before testing the early March swing-low at
102.34. The US dollar index is also in oversold territory so a period of
consolidation is needed before the next move lower.
17.10.2024
387 Views..
24 Comments..
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP rally while AUD/USD slips ahead of US payrolls
EUR/USD's recovery its $1.0778-62 support zone has
taken the cross above its
200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0869 which may now act as minor
support. Above Thursday's high at $1.0888 lies the 10 October low at $1.09 which
may act as minor resistance. Further up lies the July peak at $1.0948 which
represents the next upside target.EUR/GBP rallied from its £0.8318-to-£0.8296
support area to the early October high at £0.8434 as expected. Together with the
£0.8463 September high it creates resistance which is expected to at least
short-term cap. Were a rise above the September high to unfold, the 200-day SMA
at £0.8485 would be next in line.
Even though AUD/USD briefly fell through its $0.6580-58 support zone to $0.6537
on Wednesday, it looks as if the cross may still level out in this region.
Therefore, provided that $0.6537 underpins, a rise back towards the 200-day SMA
at $0.6627 may be at hand.
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